If Tennessee Basketball makes the Final Four, it will mark a break from a recent trend. The Vols are out to prove that a deep run in the SEC Tournament won’t prevent a team from making a deep run in the tournament that matters, the March Madness.
Good luck.
Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament run will begin on Thursday when the No. 2-seeded Vols play No. 15 Wofford at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., on Thursday at 6:50 p.m. EST. While the Terriers shouldn’t be much of a challenge, history isn’t on the Vols’ side moving forward after Rick Barnes’ team advanced to the SEC Championship Game Sunday, losing to Florida 86-77.
The last SEC Tournament champion to advance past the Sweet 16 of March Madness was Auburn in 2019. Bruce Pearl’s team made the Final Four before losing to Virginia 63-62 in the semifinals. UT lost to the Tigers in the SEC Tournament title that season and advanced to the Sweet 16 before losing to Purdue 99-94 in overtime.
After the COVID season, a trend has become apparent: Playing in the SEC Championship Game does not translate to NCAA Tournament success. Coincidence? Perhaps, but there’s no question that teams that make the SEC Championship Game tend to underachieve in March Madness.
Here is a breakdown of how each team that participated in the SEC Championship Game performed in the NCAA Tournament since Auburn’s Final Four run in 2019:
2021
Alabama beat LSU 80-79 in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide, a 2-seed, made the Sweet 16 that season before losing to 11-seed UCLA in overtime 88-78. LSU, an 8-seed, was knocked out in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, losing to 1-seed Michigan 86-78.
2022
Tennessee won the SEC Tournament by beating Texas A&M 65-50. The Vols, a 3-seed, lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to No. 11 seed Michigan 76-68. A&M advanced deep in the tournament. However, it was the NIT so that isn’t really all that impressive.
2023
Once again, Texas A&M was in the SEC Championship Game, this time losing to Alabama 82-63. Texas A&M, a 7-seed, lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to 10th-seeded Penn State 76-59. Alabama, a 1-seed was knocked out of the tournament in the Sweet 16 by 5th-seeded San Diego State 71-64.
2024
Auburn beat Florida 86-67 in the SEC Championship Game. The Tigers, a 4-seed, were upset by Yale 78-76 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, 10th-seeded Colorado upset the No. 7 seed Gators in the Round of 64.
Conclusion
While I’m not ready to say that a deep run in the SEC Tournament precludes a team from success in the NCAA Tournament, there should be concern for any team that plays in the SEC Championship Game given the recent history.
In fact, only one team to play in the SEC Tournament title the past four years advanced as far as their seeding indicated they should: 8-seed LSU reached the second round in 2021. Nobody has done that since. The other six lost to lower seeds.
Perhaps it is fatigue or less preparation time? Whatever the case, making two deep tournament runs in March seems unlikely for any team. That doesn’t bode well for the Vols.
