Last week, I went 3-2 on my premium picks and 18-17 overall. If Deion Sanders understood clock management, if Marcus Freeman knew to give the ball to his superstar running back, if Kirby Smart didn’t call off the Dawgs and if Ty Simpson could run Kalen DeBoer’s offense, I’d have gone 5-0 and 22-13. Oh well. It’s still better than my 0-5 Week 0 start to the college football season.
Now it’s onto Week 2. As usual, we pick every single game involving an SEC team and two top 25 teams we can get our hands on, then we take the best favorite, underdog, over, under and moneyline pick of the week. This week, the spreads are unavailable for three teams playing FCS schools: The South Carolina Gamecocks, Tennessee Vols and Georgia Bulldogs.
With no games outside of the league involving two top 25 teams and one conference opener for two teams, that gives us 12 regular games to pick. We also have three extra picks for our premium picks, getting us to 15 college football games overall. Let’s go ahead and dive in with our Week 2 picks.
Texas -37.5 vs. San Jose State; Over 51.5
A defensive struggle last week at the defending national champions is leading people to believe that will be the Longhorns’ identity. This is the perfect game for Arch Manning to build back up his confidence, though, so I think Steve Sarkisian’s team will crack the over themselves as they win this game in a blowout, covering easily.
Utah State +32.5 at Texas A&M; Over 54.5
Mike Elko is building a solid team with the Aggies, but their defense still isn’t yet playing within his identity, and the other Aggies out west come to town riding a wave of momentum after beating the UTEP Miners in Bronco Mendenhall’s first game. As a result, they’ll score just enough to keep A&M from covering and for the game to hit the over. Think 45-17.
Ole Miss -9.5 at Kentucky; Under 50.5
The Wildcats shocked the Rebels on the road last year, and that game actually cost Ole Miss a College Football Playoff spot. You don’t think Lane Kiffin and co. have that in their minds for this one? Even in Lexington, it should be enough for a blowout, so Ole Miss covers, and Mark Stoops’ team has such a bad offense that they still won’t score enough for the over to hit.
Missouri -6.5 vs. Kansas, Over 50.5
After thinking the Tigers would take a step back with new personnel on offense, Eli Drinkwitz proved in his opener Mizzou is still capable of scoring a lot on lesser teams. Although the Jayhawks are a good program led by Lance Leipold, they should be bad enough for the Tigers to once again hang a lot of points on the board, enough for them to cover and this game hit the over.
USF +17.5 at Florida; Under 56
Alex Golesh is an offense genius, but he’s been building the South Florida Bulls with defense, evidenced with how they shut down the Boise State Broncos last week. Meanwhile, Gators quarterback D.J. Lagway is massively overrated. As a result, Billy Napier’s team is not going to score enough to cover in this one, and that will keep the game from hitting the over.
Arkansas -19.5 vs. Arkansas State; Under 64.5
Butch Jones is leading the Red Wolves into Fayetteville, Ark., under the guise that he has rebuilt this program…to behind where it was before he took over. Anyway, the Razorbacks look to have the offense with Taylen Green and Bobby Petrino to beat up on inferior competition, so Sam Pittman’s team will cover. I’m just taking the under because the over/under is just too high.
Ball State +43.5 at Auburn; Over 52.5
Hugh Freeze and he Tigers have their quarterback in Jackson Arnold, and they will once again score pretty easily over the Cardinals. However, the defense still has some questions, so they’ll let Ball State score a couple late to cover this insanely high spread and push the game toward hitting the over.
Vanderbilt +3 at Virginia Tech; Over 47.5
Both Brent Pry and Clark Lea are building programs, but Pry isn’t bright on gameday. Lea is better at thinking on his feet. In a battle of evenly matched programs, that combined with the Commodores having the better quarterback in Diego Pavia is why Vandy will do enough to cover on the road, and since it’s about Pavia, the game hits the over.
Michigan +5.5 at Oklahoma; Under 44.5
Brent Venables has still given no reason for us to believe in the Sooners, and Jackson Arnold balling out without him at Auburn proves that. There’s an argument to take the Wolverines outright with that fact, but right now, since the game is in Noman, Okla., I’m just going with the spread. Venables runs a defensive program, and Michigan’s offense is nothing special, so take this low under.
LSU -36.5 vs. Louisiana Tech; Over 51.5
Garrett Nussmeier had a Heisman moment dominating the Clemson Tigers in the second half, and Brian Kelly’s Tigers are now on a mission to let everybody know they have finally arrived. He’ll try to keep up Nussmeier’s Heisman candidacy in a home game against the Bulldogs, so expect them to air it out, meaning they cover, and this game hits the over.
Mississippi State +6.5 vs. Arizona State; Over 59.5
Last year, the 2-10 Bulldogs only lost by a touchdown to the eventual College Football Playoff attendee Arizona State Sun Devils. Jeff Lebby’s team did look ugly in it’s season-opening win at the Southern Miss Golden Eagles, but returning to Starkville, Miss., should allow the offense to click, which is how they’ll keep ASU from covering and push this game to hit the over.
Alabama -37.5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe; Over 50.5
I still believe in Kalen DeBoer’s offensive mind and what he can do with the right quarterback to run his system, which Ty Simpson should be on paper. Against the last unranked team ever to beat Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide should ironically right the ship against the UL Monroe Warhawks. The offense will click, Bama will cover, and the game hits the over.
Premium Picks for Week 2
SMU -2.5 vs. Baylor
Although Auburn looked good beating the Bears on the road in Week 1, that team appears to be overrated. Traveling on the road to face the Mustangs, who are still a very good team, should be far too difficult for Dave Aranda’s program. That’ll be enough for Rhett Lashlee’s team to cover and maybe win running away.
Boston College +4.5 at Michigan State
This is a battle of two teams trying to make a leap under a second-year head coach, but the Eagles looked ahead of the Spartans in their first years. As a result, Bill O’Brien should have the advantage over Jonathan Smith. Playing at MSU may affect that advantage, but not enough for them to cover against BC.
Iowa at Iowa State, the Over 41.5
This is a violation of everything sacred about betting in college football. Never take the over in a Hawkeyes game! However, I think the Cyclones have proven enough offensively, when they’re not in Ireland making mistakes, to be able to move the ball, and that’ll be enough for this game to hit the over, as Iowa will have to try to score to keep up.
Michigan at Oklahoma, the Under 44.5
Venables is an elite defensive coach. Michigan plays ball-control. The game is at OU. Now that we’ve laid out all the reasons the Wolverines will fail to score, on the other side, Venables’ culture makes all OU offenses trash, and Michigan has an elite defense. That’s enough for this game to hit even this low under as a guarantee, even with linebacker Jaishawn Barham out the first half.
Mississippi State MONEYLINE vs. Arizona State
There’s an argument for Michigan, Vandy or BC on the moneyline front. But let’s make some more money. MSU is ready to take that next leap under Lebby, and ASU isn’t ready for more cowbell at Davis Wade Stadium. ASU was horrible in its opener againts Northern Arizona. That’ll be even more exposed Saturday night, and the home environment let’s Lebby show the college football world he’s arrived.
