Tennessee football has lost a road game to an unranked SEC opponent each of the past three seasons.
Are the No. 15 ranked Vols (3-1) in danger of another such scenario when they travel to unranked but undefeated Mississippi State (4-0) Saturday? Kickoff is 4:15 p.m. ET.
UT is 5-5 in games played in Starkville, and State has won two of the last four at Davis Wade Stadium. One of those was in 1994 when Todd Helton got hurt and true freshman Peyton Manning took over as the Vols quarterback.
Under Josh Heupel, Tennessee football has fared fairly well in SEC road games, going 7-9. Since 2021, only Georgia (13-2), Alabama (10-6), Ole Miss (9-8) and LSU (8-8) have a better SEC road record. And only Georgia and Alabama have more ranked SEC wins on the road.
Here are four questions about the game.
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Which team will score more quickly?
Tennessee leads the nation in first-quarter scoring with 83 points, an average of 21.
Mississippi State isn’t far behind. The Bulldogs have scored 55 first-quarter points, a 13.75 average.
Both teams are fast out of the gate. Who will be the fastest?
Tennessee has been helped by Joey Aguilar’s quick-strike ability. He started the Georgia game 14 for 14 and then started the UAB game 6 for 6. Aguilar has engineered the scripted plays brilliantly.
State has relied on fifth-year quarterback Blake Shapen, who operates Jeff Lebby’s tempo attack. While the over/under for the game is 66 points, the over/under for the first quarter might be 24.
Another note of interest, UT is averaging 5.8 explosive plays per game (a play of 20+ yards) while State is averaging 4.5. And each team has an SEC-leading five plays of at least 50 yards.
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Will cowbells corral UT offense?
The artificial noise State is allowed to use can create havoc for opposing offenses.
Arizona State struggled Sept. 6 in a 24-20 MSU upset.
Aguilar has yet to play in a high-decibel game during his college career. Junior colleges and Appalachian State games don’t compare to the noise level the Bulldogs will generate.
So how will the veteran quarterback respond? How will UT’s offense respond? Do the Vols go to a silent count or a hand clap? Will they avoid illegal procedure penalties?
Tennessee’s offense was good enough to score 41 points in an overtime loss to Georgia. It’s been good enough to average 53.5 points and 554 total yards through four games.
And the Vols have spread the wealth with a productive threesome at running back and wide receiver.
On the flip side, State, which has played three straight home games, is allowing just 11.8 points and 265.5 total yards per game. And it has three corners rated among the top 15 in the nation in efficiency by Pro Football Focus, with Kelly Jones leading the nation in lowest catch rate at 14.3% (2 catches on 14 targets)
The key for Tennessee football is to score more than 30 points and total more than 400 yards.
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Can UT’s wounded secondary contain Shapen?
Tennessee ranks last in the SEC in passing yards allowed per game (279). That’s 124th out 136 teams nationwide. UAB had 38 completions for 364 yards. Syracuse passed for 274. Georgia had 304.
Some of those yards and completions came when the game was out of reach. But UT’s secondary play is still a concern, with its top two cornerbacks still sidelined. Colton Hood (Colorado transfer) has played well enough to be projected by one outlet to be a first-round NFL draft choice. Ty Redmond is talented, but Georgia picked on the true freshmen, and he’ll be challenged by State’s dynamic duo of Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans.
Thompson, an Oklahoma State transfer, is State’s fastest player. He has 17 receptions for 291 yards and four catches of at least 45 yards. Evans, a transfer from Georgia, has 21 grabs for 290 yards; he’s had at least four catches in each game.
Shapen, who played in just four games last season due to injury and missed the UT game, has 29 career starts. He’s passed for 7,432 yards and 51 touchdowns with 64.6% accuracy. He’s had a touchdown pass in 19 consecutive games. And he’s capable of picking apart a suspect secondary.
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Does Heupel have advantage over Lebby?
Lebby coached for Heupel while Heupel was head coach at Central Florida.
Lebby also coached under Art Briles at Baylor and Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss. Does that give Lebby an edge since he picked up a few tips from two other offensive masterminds?
Heupel played for an innovative mind in Mike Leach. Does Heupel have the edge because he’s been a head coach longer and is perhaps better at in-game adjustments?
Those questions might be answered Saturday afternoon.
This game could come down to which quarterback plays best. That was a theory before the UT-Georgia game and both QBs had excellent games.
State’s defense has better numbers than Tennessee’s but it hasn’t played an explosive offense.
UT’s defense held UAB to a low-under-Heupel 23 rush yards. Can the Vols shut down State’s run game?
And State allows only 129 passing yards per game but hasn’t faced a gunslinger like Aguilar.
Look for a high-scoring game and look for the team with the most talent to prevail.
Prediction: Tennessee 34-24.
