Arch Manning has triple the value of Nico Iamaleava. Well, if you believe in NIL valuations.
Apparently, that’s the new term in college football recruiting now that “soft commit” has fallen by the wayside. The NIL valuations are based on what a prospect would be worth in NIL deals at his chosen schools. Per this report by On3, Manning, who is committed to Texas, is worth $3.4-million. Iamaleava, who is committed to Tennessee, is worth only a paltry $1-million. The new NIL valuations are a bit unclear on two fronts.
First, Iamaleava has already been rumored to have been promised $8-million for three seasons as a Vol. Second, is the NIL valuation annual or for the entire career. Either way, if the rumors of Iamaleava’s payday are true, he is well worth over $1-million annually or for his entire career.
The issue with the people making these NIL evaluations is that they’ve never had to run a business, therefore “worth” is a concept only partially understood by writers. Saying “partially” is generous.
If I were evaluating the two quarterbacks and their NIL worth, there would be many more factors at play than just how great a player might be. Position, program stability, fit within a scheme and the college destination are all factors. The first three factors determine a player’s ability to have success and be more marketable. The last determines just how many boosters are willing to fork over some dough to benefit their business.
If a player doesn’t have success, he won’t be an NIL spokesman for long. He’ll just be a guy with a lot of social media followers. Businesses will expect a return on their investment. This is not a handout.
If a player chooses to play for Mississippi State, he needs to realize beforehand that’s he’s not going to be fielding pitches from big-time advertisers in Starkville.
The simple fact is that worth is based on what someone is willing to pay. Worth can’t be ascertained by looking at passing statistics. Tennessee, for instance, is desperate for a winner. Any player that plays for Tennessee will have more opportunity since the community wants the Vols to improve and succeed. However, advertisers will pull the plug on any marketing campaign that isn’t providing a sufficient return on investment.
So is Arch worth three times what Nico is worth just because of the Manning name? No one knows. Either could flop in college. Either could win The Heisman Trophy. However, the market, not a recruiting website, will determine what that player is worth. That being stated, Iamaleava looks like a deal compared to Manning.
The NIL valuation by On3 is supposed to be ranked on three things: performance, influence and exposure. Well, the two players are rated similarly so their performance would seem to equal out. As far as influence, Manning helped lead a charge of commitments to Texas. Iamaleava did the same thing for Tennessee.
Exposure? I seriously doubt that Manning is on social media more than Iamaleava, who is always sharing and posting to help the Vols land the best class they can in 2023. Of course, Manning gets much more exposure because of his lineage. That’s understandable. However, is it really worth triple what Iamaleava is worth IF they both have successful careers? I think not.
Perhaps it’s time to bring back “soft commit” into the recruiting lexicon.
2 Responses
NIL should be called MM Mystery Money
NIL should be change to MM Mystery Money