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Caleb’s Casino Week 5: Colorado-USC under is a LOCK

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Cha-ching!!! We went 20-9 in last week’s epic slate of games and 2-1 in our best bets, bringing us to 52-37 on the year and 9-5 respectively. Another loaded week of games shows college football is in full swing. All 14 SEC teams play each other, and there are three other games involving two top 25 teams, giving us 10 games to bet, plus an 11th and 12th when we break down our best bets of the week.

Utah +3.5 at Oregon State, Under 44.5

A tough Friday night matchup, the oddsmakers have beaten me on the Utes for a while. The Beavers have the advantage at home, and Utah is banged up with Cam Rising being hurt all year, but their defense has shown enough. Despite Oregon State wanting a rebound game from last week’s tough loss, Utah keeps it close with defense, so take them and the under.

Kentucky -1 vs. Florida, Under 44

Most models have the Gators pulling off the upset. However, Florida has been atrocious on the road under Billy Napier, the Wildcats look much better this year and remain undefeated, and the game is in Kentucky and at noon. Why does that matter? Kentucky practices in the morning. Florida practices at night. Mark Stoops’ defense comes through, which is why UK and the under is the move.

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Arkansas +6.5 vs. Texas A&M, Over 53.5

The Aggies just lost their quarterback for the year, and the Razorbacks always put up a fight against them. Texas A&M’s defense is also questionable, so I would actually consider going big and taking Arkansas to win outright in this one. However, to be safe, just take them to cover, and K.J. Jefferson is why this hits the over.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia, Under 45.5

There’s no reason to believe in the Bulldogs’ offense with Carson Beck and Mike Bobo, and the Tigers are having trouble taking off on offense under Hugh Freeze. As a result, take the under in this one as the best play, but with Auburn at home, take them to cover. Georgia just hasn’t looked that good yet.

Texas -16.5 vs. Kansas, Over 61

Last year, the Longhorns won this game 55-14. Now they’re at home. Both teams are better, but Texas is even more improved on offense, so take them to win and for them to cover. It’s an interesting Big 12 battle of undefeated teams, but at the end of the day, Texas is just significantly better than the Jayhawks.

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Vanderbilt +13.5 vs. Missouri, Under 53.5

Yes, the Tigers have two impressive wins, but they are so unpredictable and always look ugly at just the most random moment. The same is true with the Commodores in reverse. This will be that game. Vanderbilt randomly puts up a fight in Nashville, and while Mizzou pulls out the win, they’ll have you scratching your head. In an ugly matchup, take the Under.

LSU -2.5 at Ole Miss, Under 67.5

All signs point to a blowout for the Tigers. Ignore that opening-loss when they moved Harold Perkins to middle linebacker, and ignore last week, which is a rivalry game. LSU’s defense is actually pretty elite, and the Rebels proved last week that they aren’t that good offensively. As a result, LSU shuts down Lane Kiffin’s offense, which is why they cover and the game hits the Under.

Notre Dame -6 at Duke, Under 52

While the Blue Devils are the other story of college football, the Fighting Irish were in the best game of the year for this college football season. This is a tough bet to make at Duke, but at the end of the day, it’s hard for me to ignore the idea that Notre Dame is just better. That Clemson game was wild, but I trust Marcus Freeman’s defense to hold Duke, so Notre Dame covers, and the game hits the under.

Tennessee -12 vs. South Carolina, Over 63.5

I know, I know. What happened last year makes it seem wild that Tennessee is a double-digit favorite after how the Vols have started this year. The Gamecocks cost UT a shot at the College Football Playoff though, and they have a horrendous pass defense. My bet is both teams air it all over the field, but the Vols get the edge and pull away in the fourth, so they cover, and this hits the over.

Alabama -14.5 at Mississippi State, Under 46.5

Every Crimson Tide game this year will be won in classic Nick Saban fashion, with defense. The Bulldogs aren’t as good as the Rebels, so even though this game is at night and in Starkville, Alabama should cover with ease. We saw against LSU that Mississippi State isn’t good offensively when facing a good defense, so that’s why Alabama covers, and this hits the under.

Week 5 picks of the Week

USC at Colorado, Under 73.5

Stay away from this 21.5-point spread given the fact that the Buffaloes are playing at home. However, while Deion Sanders and his son are the biggest story of college football, they have no pass protection. That cost them last week against the Oregon Ducks, and it’ll keep them from scoring this week, which is why you take the under.

Arkansas +6.5 vs. Texas A&M

I already mentioned why I love this bet. This game is almost always tight, and there’s no reason to believe it’ll be any different this year. When you consider the injury A&M has at quarterback and the fact that the Hogs could easily be undefeated right now, six and a half is way too many to give Jimbo Fisher’s team.

Syracuse +6.5 vs. Clemson

So the Tigers just lost a brutal game they should have won. They are out of the College Football Playoff race in September. Dabo Swinney’s players are likely demoralized by that fact. And you think they’re going to face a hyped up, undefeated Syracuse Orange team on the road and win by a touchdown? Not gonna happen. Put a lot on Dino Babers’ team.

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