There’s no sugarcoating it. We had a bad week 5 with college football picks and bets, going 9-14 overal and 0-3 in our bets of the week. However, Caleb’s Casino is still 61-48 on the year and even 9-8 on bets of the week, both of which cross the 52 percent threshold needed to turn a profit.
Now into October, in addition to all games featuring SEC teams and two top 25 teams going head to head, we’re also going to pick games with two undefeated Power Five teams going head to head. That gives us three non-conference games to pick. Three SEC teams are on bye this week, and one has a non-conference game, giving us nine games to pick in total. Let’s dive in.
Maryland +20 at Ohio State, Under 57
Yes, the Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a bye, and yes, this game is in Columbus. However, Ryan Day’s team is heavily defensive-oriented, and the Maryland Terrapins have been great at forcing turnovers this year. As a result, take the Under in this one, even with Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback for the Terps, but take them to cover. I’m seeing something like 31-17.
Texas -6.5 vs. Oklahoma, Under 60.5
Both teams are undefeated, taking college football back to the early 2000s with the Red River shootout, but let’s be honest, the Texas Longhorns have been tested way more than the Oklahoma Sooners. Take them to win, and honestly, it might be a blowout. OU won’t score enough on Texas’ defense, so take the Under as well.
LSU -5.5 at Missouri, Under 64.5
By far the toughest line to bet out there this week, you just can’t convince me that the Missouri Tigers are legitimate yet. As a result, despite what happened last week, I like the five and a half with the LSU Tigers. The game hits the under, though, as LSU’s defense rebounds to a certain degere in this one.
Mississippi State -20.5 vs. Western Michigan, Over 56.5
Last week’s loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide notwithstanding, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have decided to turn Will Rogers loose. That’ll be enough for them to blow out the Western Michigan Broncos at home, so they’ll cover the spread, and at the same time, they’ll hit the over thanks to a ton of big plays in the passing game.
Alabama -1.5 at Texas A&M, Over 46.5
Earlier this college football season this would have even been a more sure bet for me, but given how the Tide have looked in recent weeks, it’s still a sure bet. Even in Texas A&M, Alabama has figured out how to use Jalen Milroe, and their defense is dominant. A&M’s offense is rolling though with Bobby Petrino, Jimbo Fisher and Max Johnson, so take the Over.
Florida -18.5 vs. Vanderbilt, Over 52
Say what you want about Billy Napier and the Florida Gators, but the Vanderbilt Commodores are just that bad. With Florida playing this game at home, they should cover the 18.5-point spread, and given how bad Vandy’s defense has been, even Napier should be able to hit the over in this game.
Georgia -15 vs. Kentucky, Over 48
The consensus top team in college football finally has a ranked foe. On Saturday, the Georgia Bulldogs face the Kentucky Wildcats in a battle of unbeatens. Everybody’s overreacting to them struggling vs. the Auburn Tigers, and they’re finally getting healthy, so with this being a home game, they will win in a blowout. Chalk this as a game in which they’re on a mission.
Notre Dame -6.5 at Louisville, Under 54
Just last week, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish ended the undefeated season of one basketball team. It’s time for them to do it again. The Louisville Cardinals should’ve lost last week, and they’ll lose to a defensive-oriented Notre Dame team on Saturday at home. That defense is why Marcus Freeman’s kids cover and this game hits the under.
Ole Miss -11.5 vs. Arkansas, Over 63.5
Okay, I’ve seen enough to be a believer in the Ole Miss Rebels’ offense under Lane Kiffin. He worked the transfer portal, but this year, it’s paying off, and struggling against Alabama is much more about Nick Saban’s defense this year. Still, Ole Miss covers against the Arkansas Razorbacks, and with this offense, the game easily hits the over.
Best bets of the week
Arizona State vs. Colorado, Over 59.5
Yes, the Arizona State Sun Devils have a horrendous offense, but the Colorado Buffaloes have a questionable defense, and ASU’s defense is bad enough that Colorado should score all over them. As a result, Deion Sanders’ team, even down in tempe, should put on a show with a quarterback in Shedeur Sanders who is as good as any QB in college football.
Texas -6.5 vs. Oklahoma
It’s so obvious that OU is not ready for this stage. Steve Sarkisian may be overrated, but he’s certainly a better head coach than Brent Venables, and OU struggled to dominate the Cincinnati Bearcats and the SMU Mustangs, so this should be an easy call. Texas is going to win this one running away in a blowout.
Mississippi State vs. Western Michigan, Over 56.5
Guys, Western Michigan gave up 41 points to the Iowa Hawkeyes!!! Yes, that Iowa team with a historically bad offense. Mississippi State will light them up with Will Rogers, and you could maybe even parlay this with MSU covering and the game hitting the over, but if you want to be safe, just play the over. It’s a guarantee to hit.