Before this season, I predicted Joe Milton would be one of the top five quarterbacks in the SEC.

I was influenced by him winning Offensive MVP in a victory over Clemson in the Orange Bowl.

I was influenced by him being in Josh Heupel’s system for a third year.

I was influenced by what I thought would be a solid receiving corps, helped by Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton.

I was wrong.

Tennessee’s sixth-year senior has not played like he did against Clemson. And he has not been one of the SEC’s better quarterbacks. He’s not been as good as Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. And he hasn’t been as good as the quarterbacks at LSU, Missouri, Georgia, Ole Miss, Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi State or Arkansas.

Milton’s poor performance in a 20-13 victory over Texas A&M did not inspire confidence that the 15^th-ranked Vols will beat No. 9 Alabama in Tuscaloosa (3:30 pm kickoff, CBS). The Tide are favored by nine points and will seek to avenge last year’s 52-49 loss to UT at Neyland Stadium.

Against the Aggies, Milton was 11 of 22 for 100 yards and one touchdown. He missed some throws. He didn’t spot some open receivers. And ran out of bounds rather than pick up a first down on one play. He did not show field or situational awareness.

And I’m convinced that Tennessee’s zone-read isn’t a read at all. I think it’s a predetermined handoff or keep by the quarterback. How else do you explain Milton handing off when an end crashes down, leaving an open field for Milton to run?

And I believed Milton’s 81-yard run against Texas San Antonio was a predetermined call.

If Milton plays against Alabama like he did against A&M, the Vols have no chance.

You can’t expect Tennessee to rush for 232 yards against Alabama – like it did against the Aggies – on the road. Remember, UT gained just 100 yards on 30 carries in its only true road game – at Florida.

And you can’t expect the defense to hold the Tide to 13 points – not at Bryant-Denny. Milroe is starting to blossom. He passed for 321 yards in a win at A&M. He was only 10 of 21 passing against Arkansas, but threw for 238 yards – or 23.8 yards per completion. He has proven to be an effective deep-ball passer.

Moreover, Milroe is one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation. He might be Bama’s best running back if he moved to that position.

While UT’s defense was able to tee off on A&M’s Max Johnson, getting two sacks and nine quarterback pressures, doing that against Milroe figures to be tougher.

Although it’s worth pointing out, Alabama has allowed an astonishing 31 – and Tennessee averages four sacks per game.

Bottom line: If Milton doesn’t play much better, Tennessee won’t win at Alabama.

Does that mean the Vols turn to five-star true freshman Nico Iamaleava?

Maybe. But that depends on what Milton does.

If UT falls to the Tide and Milton goes 10 for 30 with three interceptions, UT’s hand might be forced to go with a rookie.

If Milton plays reasonably well and UT still loses, don’t expect a change.

Also, Heupel and his staff know whether Iamaleava is ready or not. How has he practiced? Has he adapted to the offense? Is he an accurate passer? Is he effective in the zone-read?

If the answer to those questions is yes, then UT might be willing to make a change at quarterback sooner than later – depending on how Milton plays.

But you also have to consider this: UT is Milton’s team. He’s been around three years. He has a great arm. And the players believe in him.

If you go to Iamaleava, do you lose the locker room?

Heupel will be faced with some tough decisions in the next few weeks if Milton doesn’t play better.

But this could all be resolved if the Milton that beat Clemson returns to the field.