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Caleb’s Casino: Josh Heupel fails to clear lowest over/under of his career in college football Week 8 picks and bets

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Five SEC teams have a bye this week, one plays a non-conference opponent, and there are three non-SEC games featuring two top 25 teams. That plus our bet of the week special gives us nine college football games to gamble on for the year, and it includes the lowest over/under of any game Josh Heupel has ever coached.

Arkansas -6 vs. Mississippi State; Over 48.5

Sam Pittman and the Razorbacks have been in every game they’ve played this year except for the LSU Tigers. Facing the Mississippi State Bulldogs at home, a team that’s not very good under Zach Arnett, the Hogs will finally get a much-needed win. Look for K.J. Jefferson to go off in this one, so take the over.

Penn State +4.5 at Ohio State; Under 45.5

Anybody who’s really watched the Buckeyes this year knows they have issues. They were my college football national championship pick before the season started, but that was before I saw how Kyle McCord played. Now I’m much higher on the Nittany Lions, so even in Columbus, their defense is why they cover and the game hits the under.

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South Carolina +7 Missouri; Over 60

Everything points to Mizzou winning this game, but the Tigers don’t have a pass defense, and Spencer Rattler is capable of going off in that situation. The Gamecocks don’t have much of a pass defense either, so look for a shootout, but that scenario favors South Carolina at least making this a game.

Alabama -9 vs. Tennessee; Under 48.5

These two teams are similar in so many ways, all of which are the opposite of how they looked last year. However, the Crimson Tide have the better quarterback play in Jalen Milroe. That alone is why they cover, as Milroe hits a couple of deep shots in a close, defensive game that hits the under.

Auburn +6.5 vs. Ole Miss; Under 55

Lane Kiffin and the Rebels are on a roll right now with a great offense, and Hugh Freeze’s Tigers just got blown out. However, that’s going to happen his first year, and this is still a dangerous team. They have a defense that’s better than it looked last week, and playing at home, they’ll force Jaxon Dart to make some mistakes, so they cover, and the game hits the under.

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Army +31 at LSU; Under 58

Brian Kelly’s team has been on a tear since the start of October, and the offense is on a roll. However, they’re likely to take a night off and play a bit of ugly football in this one. As a result, the Black Knights cover that huge spread, and their ball control run-oriented offense keeps the game from hitting the over.

Duke +14.5 at Florida State; Under49

Yes, I’m going with the surprise of college football this year. Mike Elko is a great coach, and the Seminoles are on too much of a roll to not slip up at one point. I’m not saying Duke wins this game, but they catch FSU napping in the first half, and their defense forces FSU to fight for a win while this game hits the under.

USC -7 vs. Utah; Over 54

Caleb Williams was seemingly exposed last week against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but the Utes still don’t have their quarterback, and despite their physical defensive line, they don’t have the speed on the edge that ND does. As a result, Williams goes back off again in his return to Pac-12 play, as the Trojans win in a blowout, and the game hits the over.

Bets of the Week

Penn State moneyline

Everything I said about Penn State earlier on this post is why I’m taking them to pull off the upset. Ryan Day doesn’t have the same quarterback play and hasn’t been good about getting his team up to play, so I’ve got the Nittany Lions pulling off a huge road win in college football’s game of the week. This is a huge payout, so go all in.

Michigan -24 at Michigan State

Nobody is dominating right now like the Wolverines, which is why they are considered by many to be the best team in college football. Sure, they have played an easy schedule, but they’re on a mission given Jim Harbaugh’s suspension early in the year. The Spartans have quit on the season, meanwhile, because of the Mel Tucker situation, so Michigan wins an easy blowout.

Tennessee at Alabama, the Under 48.5

It’s the lowest over/under of Josh Heupel’s career, and it’s the best bet of college football this weekend. Josh Heupel and Nick Saban both have ball control teams with mediocre quarterbacks, so for the second straight week, both of these teams fail to clear a low bar when it comes to the over/under.

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