Tennessee has a good enough run game to beat Alabama.
Tennessee has a good enough pass rush to beat Alabama.
Tennessee has good enough special teams to beat Alabama.
But the Vols haven’t had a good enough passing game to beat Alabama – and unless Joe Milton plays like he did against Clemson in the Orange Bowl, the Vols have little chance of beating Bama for a second consecutive year.
Perhaps it’s too simplistic to say the Third Saturday in October rivalry comes down to Milton. But that just might be the case.
Milton was mediocre at best last week against Texas A&M, completing 11 of 22 passes for 100 yards with two interceptions. He had at least two passes dropped.
That won’t cut it at No. 9 Alabama (6-1, 4-0 SEC). If Milton doesn’t complete over 60% of his passes for over 225 yards, the No. 15 Vols (5-1, 2-1) hardly stand a chance against the 9-point favorite Tide.
Milton has had just one game in which he passed for more than 240 yards. He’s thrown five interceptions in the last three games. He hasn’t executed the zone-read option very well – if in fact it’s an option and not a predetermined call.
Milton isn’t the only reason UT is averaging only 212.5 passing yards per game – compared to 326.1 last year.
UT’s receivers haven’t lived up to their preseason billing. Bru McCoy is hurt. Squirrel White has been productive with 29 catches for 305 yards but no scores. And he’s had just two games with over 45 receiving yards. Senior Ramel Keyton has been a disappointment, dropping two touchdown passes (Virginia, Texas A&M). He has only 14 catches in six games. Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton has been a bust with just seven catches and no scores.
The receivers have dropped too many passes and not gained separation like last year’s group.
Tennessee’s run game leads the SEC at 231.3 and the Vols ran for 232 against A&M’s then-No. 1 ranked SEC run defense (84 yards per game). And UT has three running backs averaging at least 5.5 yards per carry.
But in UT’s only true road game, the Vols managed just 100 rush yards at Florida. That, however, was without All-SEC center Cooper Mays. He could make a huge difference at Alabama.
Meanwhile, the Tide are third in the SEC in run defense at 104.4 per game.
Tennessee is just as stingy at 105.2 rush yards allowed per game.
Tennessee has recorded 24 sacks while the Tide have allowed 31 sacks.
Then there’s the revenge factor. Don’t think Alabama has forgotten about losing to UT on the last play of the game last year with fans storming Neyland Stadium and tearing down the goalposts.
Just like UT was motivated to get revenge against South Carolina, Nick Saban’s squad will be juiced up to not only avenge last year’s defeat, but keep its lead in the West Division.
For Tennessee to win at Bryant-Denny, Milton must play well, the Vols must rush for over 150 yards, contain quarterback Jalen Milroe, pressure Milroe into errant throws and win the kicking game.
Alabama is beatable, but UT’s lone road performance and lack of an explosive passing attack make it hard to pick the Vols.
Prediction: Alabama 27, Tennessee 17.
