It was a horrendous Week 8 for us in our college football bets. We went 5-12 overall with one push and 1-2 in our bets of the week, dropping us to 85-78 on the year and 12-12 in our picks of the week. This is our comeback. Four SEC teams are on bye, and the other 10 play each other. There are also two top 25 games and one extra in our best bets, giving us eight games to pick. Let’s go!
Texas A&M -14.5 vs. South Carolina, Under 53.5
I’ve been picking all year that the Aggies would be the collapse team in college football, and after two straight losses, that should be the case, but they keep getting a break in their schedule. This time, they face a reeling Gamecocks team and are coming off a bye, so at home, they’ll cover again, and their defense will help this game hit the under.
Georgia -14.5 vs. Florida, Under 47.5
Confidence may be growing in Billy Napier and the Gators after they beat South Carolina, but the Gamecocks are just that bad. Although the Bulldogs play down to their opponents, that never applies to Florida anymore given the history of this rivalry. As a result, coming off a bye, Kirby Smart’s defense will shut down this overrated offense, so UGA covers, and the game hits the under.
Auburn -6.5 vs. Mississippi State, Over 41.5
Hugh Freeze in a game with the over/under this low is shocking, but his offense hasn’t figured things out yet in his first year. However, the Bulldogs are a mediocre team as well, and as a result, Zach Arnett’s team will struggle in this one. Auburn snaps a four-game losing streak with a big win, and this game just BARELY hits the over.
Oregon -6.5 at Utah, Over 47.5
Probably the best college football game of the week, the Oregon Ducks and Utah Utes are both in the national championship race right now, and this is a game to stay in that along with the Pac-12 title race. After an emotional win over the USC Trojans, though, Utah just won’t have enough in this one. Oregon covers, and in a typical Pac-12 shootout, this game hits the over.
Duke +4 at Louisville, Under 46
The Blue Devils were in the process of covering last week against the Florida State Seminoles until late. Mike Elko is the best coach in college football, and the Louisville Cardinals are overrated. As a result, despite this being at Louisville, Duke will cover this spread by playing great defense, so bet on the under.
Ole Miss -24.5 vs. Vanderbilt, Over 63.5
Lane Kiffin and the Rebels are actually in the College Football Playoff hunt, their only loss coming to the Alabama Crimson Tide. He’s riding high on that and loves to run up the score against bad teams, so with the Vanderbilt Commodores coming to town, Ole Miss is going to let it fly. Given Vandy’s defense, they may hit the over themselves, and they cover.
Tennessee -3.5 at Kentucky, Over 51.5
Although the Wildcats are coming off a bye and playing at home while the Vols suffered an emotional loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide, and although UK is at home while UT has been awful on the road, particularly at night, I’m still taking Josh Heupel. The offense has figured out how to use Joe Milton III, so take the over, and the Vols own Kentucky.
Picks of the Week
Colorado +17 at UCLA
Despite the Buffaloes’ rough loss to the Stanford Cardinal in their last game, and despite the Bruins scoring a blowout win last week, Deion Sanders and Colorado are fresh off a bye. They have the skill players to hang with Chip Kelly’s finesse offense, so although they’re on the road, they won’t get blown out in this one.
Oregon at Utah, the Over 47.5
Throughout the season, Oregon has been locked in shootouts in every one of their tough games. Utah was just in a shootout with USC. This line is based on what Dan Lanning and Kyle Whittingham traditionally do. That’s not going to apply here. Oregon wins a shootout, and the over/under is way too low even if it isn’t.
Duke MONEYLINE at Louisville
Yes, the upset of the week in college football will happen with Duke. Sure, Louisville beat Notre Dame while Duke lost to them, but for Louisville, it was when ND was preparing for midterms. Both of these coaches are good, but Elko is elite, and that will make the difference. Go in on the upset here.