You’re welcome. We went 16-7 with one push overall and 4-1 on our best best for week 10 of the college football season, bringing us to 110-91 overall and 17-15 in our best bets of the year. All 14 SEC teams play each other, and there are two other top 25 games, giving us nine games to pick, plus three extra best bets games, giving us 12 games overall. Let’s dive in.
Alabama -11 at Kentucky; Over 46.5
This is a bit of a shocking line. You might think Vegas knows something we don’t but I think the Crimson Tide are going to continue to roll. I understand the trap game concept, but Nick Saban is on a mission, and Jalen Milroe may be the best quarterback in the SEC. He airs it out, so Bama covers, and this hits the over.
South Carolina -14 vs. Vanderbilt; Over 57.5
Despite struggling right now with another Gamecocks team, Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are actually facing a worse team in the SEC. South Carolina is positioned for a strong finish to get to 6-6, so Spencer Rattler airs it out all over the Commodores, and Vandy exploits S.C.’s defense for the game to hit the over. Beamer and co. cover as well.
Michigan -4 at Penn State, Over 44.5
The biggest mystery in college football is the Wolverines. They have been the best team in the nation in terms of the eye test, but they’ve played the weakest schedule possible. We also have no idea how they’ll respond to the sign-stealing scandal. I’m all in on Jim Harbaugh’s team being on a mission, so they’ll pour it on the Nittany Lions, covering and their offense hitting the over.
Tennessee -2 at Missouri; Over 58.5
This started as a pick ’em game and has moved two points to the Vols. That suggest that the Tigers have some injuries we don’t know about, maybe Luther Burden, who is already questionable. With Joe Milton III playing at his best right now, UT pours it on Mizzou. They’ve scored over 60 points each of the past two games against them, so they cover and this hits the over.
Utah +9.5 at Washington; Under 50.5
I know, the Huskies just pulled off an emotional road win over the USC Trojans, and the Utes have major issues on offense. However, this just seems like one of those trap games coming back home. Remember, Utah is still in the Pac-12 title race, and nobody is paying attention to them. With a good defense, they cover while forcing the under, and they could bring chaos to college football.
Arkansas -2.5 vs. Auburn; Under 48.5
Hey, the Razorbacks may have something with their new offensive scheme. A bowl berth is still possible, and the Tigers have offensive issues in Hugh Freeze’s firs year. As a result, the Hogs are the right team to be favored here. Given Sam Pittman’s ball control offense, though, and given Freeze’s offense struggling take the under here.
Georgia -10.5 vs. Ole Miss; Under 58.5
It’s pretty clear the Dawgs don’t overlook good opponents. Lane Kiffin isn’t going to give Kirby Smart any reason to allow the Bulldogs to play down to the Rebels. At home against a top 10 team at night that they are way better than with a chance to win the East means they’ll dominate. Ole Miss’ offense struggled against Alabama, and it’ll struggle at UGA, so take the under.
Florida +14 at LSU; Over 63.5
Billy Napier is in trouble after the Gators lost to the Hogs last week. Brian Kelly’s Tigers suffered a letdown with last week’s loss to Alabama. This has all the makings of a potential upset, as LSU will be more let down than Florida. With the Tigers’ lack of defense, though, take the over in this one, and Florida will cover.
Mississippi State +18.5 at Texas A&M; Under 43.5
Where to go with this was extremely difficult. The Aggies were supposed to be the collapse team of college football but haven’t been. Still, this spread is too big. Jimbo Fisher’s team wins an ugly game against a disappointing Bulldogs team coming off a 24-3 loss to UK. The score will look something like 27-14, but stay away from this game if you can.
Alabama -11 at Kentucky
Being on a mission to get Milroe into the Heisman race and Kentucky being overrated from a win last week will result in Bama winning in a blowout. Saban still has work to do to get his team into the College Football Playoff. It’s not a guarantee. As a result, he’s going to pour it on Kentucky and make sure everybody knows Bama is rolling.
Duke +14.5 at UNC
Yes, I missed on the Blue Devis two weeks ago, but they still have a great defense and are a well-coached team. Meanwhile, the North Carolina Tar Heels are stumbling down the stretch. As a result, despite this being a road game (which means nothing given how close these schools are), Mike Elko’s team puts up a fight against Mack Brown’s kids.
Colorado MONEYLINE vs. Arizona
Back to back upset wins for the Wildcats has them rolling, and the Buffaloes are stumbling down the stretch of Deion Sanders’ first season. However, to make a bowl, the story of college football in September HAS to win this one with two road games left. Colorado covered last week, and this week, they’ll pull off the upset at home.
Auburn at Arkansas, the Under 48.5
Although the spread is the big story here, the under is the easier bet. Despite hitting the over last week, Arkansas is playing a much better defense in Auburn, and Freeze’s offense is absolutely atrocious. Given that fact, and given how Pittman likes to play, this game is the best under bet of the week in college football.
USC at Oregon, the Over 73.5
An automatic over right now involves USC, and facing a Ducks team with a Heisman contender in Bo Nix on the road should mean for lots of points. There’s no way Lincoln Riley’s defense, after firing his defensive coordinator midweek, holds Oregon alone to under 50 points. Caleb Williams himself will have a few touchdowns, so this over is easy.