- Advertisement -

LSU, Auburn will STRUGGLE; Colorado will UPSET WSU: Week 12 college football picks and bets

- Advertisement -

Apologies for our bad beats last week. We went 8-13 overall and 2-3 on our best college football bets. However, we’re 118-104 now overall and 19-18 on our best bets, so we are still above 53 percent on both fronts. This week, seven SEC teams have non-conference foes, but two play FCS schools. Six others play each other with one bye, plus three top 25 games and three more best bets, giving us 11 to pick.

Ole Miss -37 vs. Louisiana Monroe; Over 61.5

Lane Kiffin and the Rebels are angry after a blowout loss to the Warhawks last week. Given Kiffin’s track record of liking to pour it on inferior opponents, they’re going to take it out on an easy game this week. Look for Ole Miss to air it out and try to hang 60 on an inferior opponent and win in what may arguably be their biggest blowout of the year. Take the over because of that too.

Southern Miss +14 at Mississippi State; Under 47.5

It’s pretty clear the Bulldogs are not a good team, and they now have likely quit on the season given the firing of Zach Arnett. There won’t be any play hard for the coach mentality in this one. As a result, the Golden Eagles will put up a fight in Starkville, Miss., and MSU’s horrendous offense will remain incompetent, which is why Southern Miss may actually win, and the game will hit the under.

Arizona -1 vs. Utah; Over 44.5

Sometimes you have to base you picks on momentum in college football. The Wildcats are rolling and one of the hottest teams in the sport. Meanwhile, the Utes just aren’t what they can be with a banged up backfield. As a result, playing at home and with this being the last marquee game for them, they will win a lot more convincingly, and they’ll do it with offense, so take the over.

Georgia -10 at Tennessee; Under 58.5

After proving to be the best team in college football last week, trends suggest the Bulldogs will struggle on the road this week. However, they’re riding a wave right now. Meanwhile, the culture in Knoxville is quitting on the season after they lost out on any shot to win the East. As a result, they’ll mail it in. The offense won’t be useful, so this hits the under, and UGA wins a blowout.

- Advertisement -

New Mexico State +24 at Auburn; Under 48.5

Hugh Freeze’s Tigers are one of the fastest improving teams in college football. Don’t overlook them in the Iron Bowl next week. However, because they are still developing and will be looking ahead to that one, they won’t cover. Once again, their offense is going to struggle, as it has all year, so also go with the under in this game.

Kansas State -7.5 at Kansas; Over 56.5

Although these two teams are evenly matched, the Wildcats are significantly better than the Jayhawks. Kansas has the better coach in Lance Leipold, but KSU is more talented, and there is talk of Leipold’s name already coming up in the college football coaching carousel. That combination is why KSU wins a blowout on the road with its offense, so take the over.

Washington +2.5 at Oregon State; Over 63.5

This could have been a potential upset, but the line now has the Beavers as a favorite at home. Since the Huskies are undefeated, they are going to take that personally. Given how bad Washington State now is, Washington won’t be looking ahead to that matchup. They’ll be angry, and Michael Penix Jr. will ball out, so this hits the over.

Florida +11.5 at Missouri; Under 58.5

I changed this on the fly. Reports are out that Eli Drinkwitz was so committed to beating the Vols last week that he, at the sacrifice of maybe a win earlier in the year, saved an entire gameplan just for them. It’s now out there, though, so despite how bad the Gators are, they’ll be able to put up a fight. Mizzou won’t emotionally be there either, so take the under in a sloppy game.

FIU +29.5 at Arkansas; Over 49.5

Mississippi State has quit on the season. However, it’s even worse for the Razorbacks when everybody know that Sam Pittman is getting fired at the end of the year. Playing with a lame duck coach gives them the worst situation in college football, so they’ll fail to cover against the Florida International Panthers. Their defense is now bad, so this game also hits the over.

South Carolina +1.5 vs. Kentucky; Over 54.5

The wrong team is favored here. Shane Beamer and Spencer Rattler are going to have a strong finish just as they did last year to get to a bowl game. Playing at home, the Gamecocks will do exactly what they need to do against the Wildcats, and Rattler, knowing he is playing for his draft status, will come in and ball out for the game to hit the over.

Georgia State +31 at LSU; Over 72.5

Jayden Daniels had a Heisman game for the Tigers last week. He’s playing like the best quarterback in college football right now. With that momentum, he’ll continue to ball out, but LSU’s defensive issues and the fact that they don’t care as much with little to play for is why they’ll fail to cover against the Panthers by allowing them to score too much, so take the over.

Bets of the Week

Georgia State +31 at LSU

Again, Georgia State is a decent team, and LSU has a horrendous defense. With the disappointment of not winning anything, they’ll take this game off, at least on defense, which will be more than enough for them to not cover a gigantic spread. As a result, Georgia State is the best underdog to bet on with the spread this week.

Clemson -6.5 vs. North Carolina

Despite how their seasons have gone, the Tigers are the much more talented team, they are playing at home, and the UNC Tar Heels are coming apart late in this college football season. Even with Drake Maye, they aren’t as good as they were early. Add in their tough, overtime victory last week over the Duke Blue Devils, and they are physically and mentally drained. Clemson wins a blowout.

Colorado MONEYLINE at Washington State

We just missed the story of college football righting the ship last week, barely losing at home to a red-hot Arizona team. Now, the Buffaloes are on the road, but they’re facing a Cougars team reeling even more than they are. As a result, Deion Sanders’ team has one more September-style game left in them, and it comes this weekend.

New Mexico State at Auburn, the Under 48.5

We already mentioned how Auburn’s inconsistency and their unlikelihood of being up for this game given next week’s Iron Bowl will be more than enough for them to look ahead of this one. Given that their issues are on offense, the looking ahead will be on that side of the ball, which is why the under here is an easy play.

UCLA at USC, the Over 66.5

Okay, so we missed last week with the Trojans not hitting the over against the Oregon Ducks, but Oregon plays good defense under Dan Lanning. The Bruins are much more finesse under Chip Kelly. As a result, with Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams, USC returns to being the perpetual over team in college football, so go all in on that.

- Advertisement -

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *