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Caleb’s Casino: Kentucky COVERS vs. Louisville in college football Week 13 picks and bets

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A rough start to last week finished strong, putting us at 12-10 overall. Still, we were 2-3 on our best bets, bringing us to 130-114 this year and 21-21 on our best bets. Now, in the last week of the college football regular season, all 14 SEC teams play, with four having their annual rivalries against ACC schools. Two more top 25 games plus three more in our best bets give us 14 games to pick overall. Let’s dive in.

Ole Miss -10 at Mississippi State, Over 55.5

Although this is a rivalry game, one of the most underrated in college football, and the Bulldogs are playing at home, the Rebels under Lane Kiffin are just too good. MSU has quit the season with Zach Arnett fired, and Ole Miss wants revenge after last year’s loss, so they dominate, and this game hits the over with their offense.

Arkansas +7.5 vs. Missouri, Over 54.5

Every model has Mizzou covering easily. However, the Razorbacks seem like the team wanting to play hard for Sam Pittman. The Hogs are also at home, and the Tigers are coming off a hard-fought win last week over the Florida Gators after pulling out all the stops against the Vols, so Arkansas makes this close in a shootout between two bad defenses. Take the over.

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Oregon -13.5 vs. Oregon State, Over 62.5

Last week was the Beavers’ chance to pull off an upset and sneak their way into the Pac-12 Championship game. Not pulling that out means they have little else to play for, and they’re traveling to an Oregon Ducks team with a College Football Playoff appearance on the line. Bo Nix and co. go off, so this hits the over, and they cover in a blowout.

Ohio State +3 at Michigan, Under 46.5

Ryan Day should absolutely be fired if the Buckeyes don’t beat the Wolverines this year. They have the most first-rounders in the NFL Draft for next year of anybody, and the Jim Harbaugh suspension is a distraction, no matter how you slice it. As a result, OSU will control this game with its defense, and Kyle McCord will play ball control, so they win outright, and this hits the under.

Kentucky +7 at Louisville, Under 50.5

Another one against the model, the Louisville Cardinals are easily the worst one-loss team in college football. The Kentucky Wildcats always play well in this one as well, and with Mark Stoops’ defense, even on the road, they’ll manage to turn this into an ugly affair. As a result, Jeff Brohm’s offense won’t be the same. They win but don’t cover., and the under hits.

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Texas A&M +11 vs. LSU, Over 66.5

Stay away from this game if you can. The Aggies have more talent but have fired their coach, and the Tigers have nothing to play for but have a Heisman caliber quarterback. Jayden Daniels and the questions surrounding the defense are why this hits the over, but I think Texas A&M’s talent allows them to not lose by double figures.

Vanderbilt +24 at Tennessee, Under 56.5

For as bad as the Commodores are, they’re coming off a bye, and the Tennessee Vols haven’t won a game by more than 21 in SEC play all season. Meanwhile, they have suffered back-to-back blowout losses after thinking they had something to play for in November. As a result, while UT wins, Vandy covers in this one. UT’s offensive woes are why the under hits.

Alabama -14.5 at Auburn, Over 48.5

Typically, the Iron Bowl is close at Auburn, but this year’s Crimson Tide team is significantly better, and Nick Saban is on a mission. He wants to push Jalen Milroe into the Heisman conversation, and Bama needs some style points to get into the College Football Playoff, so against a Tigers team that just got blown out by the New Mexico State Aggies, Bama’s offense is why this team covers and the over hits.

Florida +6.5 vs. Florida State, Under 50.5

Here’s another one you need to stay away from. Nobody knows what to make of the Seminoles without Jordan Travis. I’ve got the Gators playing them close since it’s a rivalry and at home. Billy Napier’s team just put up a fight on the road against Mizzou last week, so they can do it again, making this an ugly affair, which is why they cover and the under hits.

Georgia Tech +24 vs. Georgia, Under 59.5

After three straight weeks of playing top 25 opponents, Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs will revert back to not getting excited to face teams. Against a decent 6-5 Yellow Jackets program playing at home, that could be enough for them to keep this within three touchdowns. The Dawgs will play sloppy, which is why they don’t cover, and this hits the under.

South Carolina +7 vs. Clemson, Over 51.5

If you’re feeling greedy, take the Gamecocks moneyline. Shane Beamer saved his job, and Spencer Rattler his popularity in college, in part by winning this game at the Tigers last year. The Gamecocks aren’t much worse, but Dabo Swinney’s team has fallen significantly, and playing in Columbia, S.C., with a bowl game on the line screams for Rattler to go off, so take him to cover and the over.

Best bets

Utah -22 vs. Colorado

Yes, it’s a huge line, but the story of college football in September is a disaster right now. The Buffaloes have quit on Deion Sanders, as Coach Prime doesn’t seem capable of managing things when they go poorly. As a result, the Utes will absolutely blow them out of the water in this one, just as the Washington State Cougars did last week.

Georgia Tech +24 vs. Georgia

I’m most confident in this underdog to cover simply because of how Georgia has played on the road in games it doesn’t care about to this point. Yes, they blew out the Vols last week, but again, that was a top 25 game. Now that they are firmly established back as the No. 1 team, they’ll likely take a Saturday off, so they don’t cover here.

N.C. State MONEYLINE vs. UNC

Although Ohio State is my most high-profile moneyline, the Wolfpack are underdogs by 2.5 points at home to the unranked North Carolina Tar Heels. That should be motivation enough for them to win this game. Mack Brown’s team is falling apart as of late, so it’s hard to see them rebounding after what has happened recently. Dave Doeren’s team wins outright.

Penn State at Michigan State, the Under 42.5

James Franklin and the Nittany Lions are clearly a tier below Michigan and Ohio State still, but they win with defense and physicality, and they are playing a Spartans team that has quit on the season since the Mel Tucker firing. MSU not scoring is why this game is going to hit the under with ease. As a matter of fact, it should be set below 30.

Missouri at Arkansas, the Over 54.5

Again, Arkansas will play hard for Sam Pittman. K.J. Jefferson is still there, and the offense has gotten much better since changing coordinators. Mizzou’s defense is mostly not good, and they have an elite offense, so you might get a good alternate spread in the 70s on this one. It could be the highest scoring game of the week in college football.

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