Conference championship weekend is here, and ever Power Five title game has College Football Playoff implications. In fact, two of the games have two teams playing for a potential spot in the CFP, although both would need a little bit of help to get in. Last week, we went 8-12 on all our bets with two pushes but 4-1 on our best bets.
That brings us to 138-126 on the year and 25-22 on our best bets, getting us over 52 percent on both, meaning we turned a profit for the regular season. Now, we’re doing something unique. After picking every SEC and top 25 game throughout the year, we’ll just pick every conference title game this week, regardless of ranking, giving us 10 games overall. Let’s dive in.
C-USA Title: New Mexico State +11.5 at Liberty, Under 56.5
Josh Heupel dismissed Kaidon Salter from UT in 2021, and now he’s got the Liberty Flames undefeated as college football’s best Group of Five quarterback in Jamey Chadwell’s first year. Liberty will win the Conference USA, but the New Mexico State Aggies are red-hot thanks to their defense. They did just beat the Auburn Tigers 31-10. As a result, they will keep it close, so take them and the under.
Pac-12 Title: Oregon -9.5 vs. Washington; Under 65.5
Usually, college football conference championship spreads like this are too big, and the Ducks did lose to the Huskies in the regular season. However, that was at Washington. Bo Nix has played way better since then, and Michael Penix Jr. has gotten significantly worse. Oregon’s defense shuts down Penix, which is why they cover in the final meaningful Pac-12 championship game, and it hits the under.
Big 12 Title: Texas -15.5 vs. Oklahoma State; Over 54.5
Although this spread looks way too big, the Longhorns have gotten better each week with Quinn Ewers getting healthier. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are the luckiest team in college football. As a result, Texas’s offense goes off and may hit the over by itself. They dominate to make a strong College Football Playoff case, even if they’ll need help.
MAC Title: Toledo -8 vs. Miami (OH); Over 44
Jason Candle and the Rockets have been on a roll this year, and they are a far superior team to the Miami of Ohio RedHawks. As a result, Toledo will dominate with its defense to win the Mid-American Conference Championship. The over/under is just a bit too low, though, so go ahead and take the over in this game.
MWC Title: UNLV +2.5 vs. Boise State; Over 58.5
Although the Broncos are the better team, the firing of Andy Avalos is not sitting well with some players. As a result, they will play sloppy, particularly on defense, which was Avalos’ speciality, in the Mountain West Conference championship game. That’s why the Rebels cover, and the lack of effort on defense is why it hits the over as well.
SEC Title: Alabama +5.5 vs. Georgia; Under 54.5
There is no reason to think the Crimson Tide will cover in this game, which has College Football Playoff implications for both teams, just like the Pac-12. However, betting against Nick Saban as an underdog just doesn’t seem wise. Despite the Bulldogs’ successful year, betting against Mike Bobo in these situations does seem wise. As a result, Bama’s defense keeps it close, so take the under.
Sun Belt Title: Appalachian State +6 vs. Troy, Over 52.5
Don’t look now, but the Appalachian State Mountaineers have one of the best lower-level teams in the nation. Just as the James Madison Dukes were bragging about being undefeated and demanding a bowl berth, ASU went up there and beat them. As a result, six points is too much to give to the Trojans. Both offenses are humming too, so take the over.
AAC Title: Tulane -3.5 vs. SMU; Under 47.5
A Group of Five game that will have College Football Playoff implications next year, the Green Wave are looking to get to a second straight New Years Six bowl. They’ll do it as well, dominating the Mustangs with their defense, which is why this game hits the under. I see a 24-10 type of outcome, as Tulane wins the American Athletic Conference championship.
B1G Title: Iowa +21.5 vs. Michigan; Under 34.5
Sorry, this spread is way too much. Both teams play ball control and like to run clock, and the Hawkeyes do it with the worst Power Five offense out there. As a result, the under is an easy play here. Meanwhile, the Wolverines will keep it on the ground knowing turnovers are the only way Iowa can win, so they’ll capture the Big Ten championship in something like a 17-3 game.
ACC Title: Louisville +2.5 vs. Florida State; Over 47.5
Stay away from this bet. We have no idea what to make of the FSU Seminoles without Jordan Travis. Last week gave us nothing. The Cardinals showed us they’re overrated by losing to the Kentucky Wildcats, but they could have been looking ahead to this game. I’ve got Louisville covering and the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game hitting the over because of Jeff Brohm’s offensive prowess.
Best bets of the week
Tulane -3.5 vs. SMU
It’s weird that this spread is so low. Tulane is playing this game in New Orleans, and its only loss all year is to the Ole Miss Rebels, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Although SMU has looked more impressive as of late, offensive teams always look more impressive than defensive teams…until they meet the defensive team. That’s what will happen here.
Iowa +21.5 vs. Michigan
You might only get six possessions for each team in this game. That’s reason enough to not think Michigan can win by three touchdowns. They simply won’t have enough opportunities. Michigan ran it every play in the second half just three weeks ago, and Iowa does that all the time anyway. UM also hasn’t beaten a Power Five team with a winning record by more than nine all year either. Easy money.
UNLV MONEYLINE vs. Boise State
Again, Boise State may have quit on the team given Avalos’ firing. they had to squeak by the Air Force Falcons last week. Meanwhile, UNLV is getting this game at home, as the title game is played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., so why wouldn’t you take the Rebels in this one? It’s by far the easiest college football upset pick of the week.
Appalachian State vs. Troy, the Over 52.5
Sure, Troy is more of a defensive-oriented team, giving up just 16.7 points per game. At this level of college football, which is below the AAC level with Tulane, though, I actually favor offense to defense when the two identities clash, and ASU has a top 20 scoring offense. As a result, this turns into a shootout, and the over hits.
Oregon vs. Washington, the Under 65.5
Has anybody seen Washington recently? They’ve been struggling offensively left and right, to the point that it’s hard to make the case for Penix as the Heisman favorite anymore. Meanwhile, Oregon’s defense is built in the identity of Dan Lanning. This over/under is dependent on both offenses doing well. Washington’s offense will falter, so the under is an easy play.
