The Florida Gators – whether good, bad or ugly – have had Tennessee’s number over the past two decades.
If you don’t believe that, check the numbers.
Florida has won 17 of the last 19 matchups against Tennessee. Eight times during that stretch, Florida lost at least five games in a season. They’re 7-1 in those contests v. the Vols.
That includes a Florida team that went 5-7 beating Tennessee 29-16 last year.
It includes a 4-7 Florida team in 2017 beating the Vols 26-20; a 4-8 Gator team in 2013 winning 31-17; a 7-6 Gator team in 2011 prevailing 33-23.
Since 2005, Florida has beaten UT with a coach on the hot seat, a coach fired at the end of the season, unranked teams, a Hail Mary, backup quarterbacks, and four quarterbacks who weren’t good enough to keep their job so they transferred.
So why is Tennessee (4-1) a 15.5-point favorite over Florida (3-2)?
Why do odds-makers think the Vols will suddenly solve the mystery of the Gators’ mastery?
Tennessee certainly has the potential to beat Florida by two touchdowns Saturday at 7 pm at Neyland Stadium.
But history tells us UT plays one of its three worst games of the season against Florida and the Gators play one of their three best. How else do you explain last year’s two-touchdown win by a below .500 Billy Napier squad?
To many people’s surprise, the Vols offense has struggled in SEC play, scoring just 25 points at Oklahoma and 14 at Arkansas.
Maybe the opposing crowd noise has affected the offense. Maybe a 3-3-5 alignment has had an impact. Maybe quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been confused by the defensive schemes.
Whatever the reasons, Tennessee must find itself on offense or face another hard-to-explain loss to Florida.
Here are my four keys to the game:
Tennessee must be more productive on first down.
After averaging almost 10 yards per first down in the first three games, the Vols have been stagnant getting started. UT gained just 52 yards on 26 first-down snaps against Oklahoma and had just 102 yards on 26 first-down plays against Arkansas (including eight plays for 16 yards in a scoreless first half). A successful first down ignites the Vols up-tempo attack. It led to 139 first-quarter points in those first three outings.
The tackles must play better.
Lance Heard and John Campbell Jr. have struggled in pass protection, leading to Iamaleava being sacked seven times in the last two games. The Vols need to help the tackles in pass protection with a tight end or running back or by throwing quick outs or slants or screen passes. Florida has had eight sacks in the last two games. So keeping a clean pocket is imperative.
Iamaleava must do a better job recognizing defenses.
He seemed to be confused multiple times by Arkansas’ multiple looks. That’s led to him, at times, holding the ball too long and getting sacked. Maybe if UT used more motion, it would force the defense to declare whether it’s playing man or zone coverage, which could help Iamaleava process quicker.
Tennessee must impact Florida’s quarterbacks.
The Gators rank second in the SEC in completion percentage as a team (72%). Graham Mertz is completing 77%. Backup DJ Lagway is completing 69%, including 11-for-11 in the last two games. And in the last two games, Florida has hit on 23-of-28 passes against Central Florida and 26-of-28 against Mississippi State for a school record 92.9%. Not only will UT’s pass defense be tested, but so will the pass rush.
