Here’s the good news. Tennessee Football controls its own destiny to make the College Football Playoff. If the Vols win out in just the regular season, they’ll go to the SEC Championship game while also punching their ticket to the 12-team event. They got one step closer to that with a 33-14 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
However, the outcomes of other games across the sport outweighed the Vols’ victory. According to The Athletic, Rocky Top’s CFP chances went from 61 percent to 39 percent simply based on games that happened outside of their own during Week 11.
Most notably among them was the Ole Miss Rebels upsetting the Georgia Bulldogs. Now, if Tennessee Football loses to UGA this weekend, all three teams finish 10-2, and based on strength of schedule and quality wins, the Vols will finish behind both Georgia and Ole Miss.
On top of that, the Indiana Hoosiers gained more credibility by moving to 10-0 with their win over the Michigan Wolverines. Now, even if they lose to the Ohio State Buckeyes, that will leave the regular season likely with them, OSU, the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Oregon ducks all with one loss or fewer.
See the problem?
The competition for the Vols just got a lot tougher to reach the CFP, and the Miami Hurricanes losing to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets didn’t mean anything since an ACC team is going to get an automatic bid anyway. Simply put, the competition for the Vols is almost too great, so let’s break down what could happen.
Again, key is for Tennessee Football to beat Georgia, but let’s assume they lose, as is expected. Let’s then assume the Vols win out, not a given since they have to face the Vanderbilt Commodores on the road at the end of the year, even if they do face a bad UTEP Miners team before that.
Anyway, if the Vols finish 10-2, UGA and Ole Miss will also likely finish 10-2 based on their opponents, and we already mentioned how UT would be third in that group. Then you have the Texas Longhorns, who still just have one loss. Their only real shot at a loss is to the Texas A&M Aggies, and that’s also A&M’s only real shot.
Should Texas lose, they’ll be 10-2, and A&M will be 10-2. At that point, it’s likely A&M finishes ahead of the Vols due to schedule strength, and Texas, despite likely an easier schedule, could finish ahead of them due to brand name. Either way, Ole Miss, Georgia and A&M will all finish ahead of them. If Texas wins, they’ll be the ones to finish ahead.
Either way, if chalk or just a minor upset happens, Ole Miss beating Georgia basically guarantees Tennessee Football finishing no better than fourth among SEC teams in CFP rankings if the Vols don’t win in Athens on Saturday. It would guarantee them finishing no better than sixth among Big Ten and SEC teams at the end.
That is before Indiana calls it all into question if they finish with one loss. The Missouri Tigers could not finish 10-2 as well. Also, dare we bring up the Alabama Crimson Tide? On paper, Bama helped the Vols by beating the LSU Tigers, as that gives LSU three losses, and Bama has two while also having lose to UT.
However, Kalen DeBoer’s team had a much tougher strength of schedule, so don’t rule out the very real possibility that if both teams finish 10-2, Alabama’s strength of schedule overrides the Vols’ head-to-head advantage. It wouldn’t be the first time Bama gets special treatment.
Simply put, Tennessee Football is staring down being on the bubble for the last team in the CFP now with Georgia’s loss this past weekend. This is all nothing to say of the chaos of so many potential 6-2 teams in SEC play and determining who goes to the title.
