Vegas knows something we don’t. It’s not like the injury report favors Tennessee football, and nothing about Josh Heupel’s history says the Vols will put up a fight against the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday. However, for some reason, the line has shifted dramatically towards UT since it opened at Georgia -7 Saturday night.
How could it be cut in half?
You could point out how good the Vols have looked with Joey Aguilar and how bad Georgia has looked with Gunner Stockton. It’s also true the game is at Neyland Stadium. All of those were true, though, when the initial line came out and then moved half a point on Sunday. Moving down another two and a half points, though, required other developments.
Truth is, the answer is partially simple and partially revealing. Gambling money is taking place and analytical movements are the simple part, but what it reveals is the health of both teams. The line UT-UGA line is decreased because Tennessee football fans gamble more than Georgia fans, the Vols and Bulldogs are close in metric rankings, and the Dawgs are more banged up than we thought.
Sports betting is legal in the state of Tennessee and illegal in Georgia. That alone means tons of Vol fans were putting money on the line once it came out Saturday night, which is why it dipped half a point on Sunday. Once the news of College GameDay coming to town came out, probably even more of them started betting on it.
However, that wouldn’t be enough to move the line as much as it did. Oddsmakers probably looked at the ESPN FPI and SP+ rankings that came out Sunday after Week 2. The SP+ rankings moved UT up to No. 6, while Georgia dropped to No. 4. Meanwhile, the FPI gives the Vols now a 51.5 percent chance of winning since the game is in Knoxville.
What is most shocking, though, is that this dramatic movement happened after Pete Thamel revealed the news Tennessee football would be without Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III at cornerback on Saturday. Georgia, meanwhile, is leaving the status of two offensive linemen, Juan Gaston and Earnest Greene, in limbo.
That suggests the line was set when oddsmakers already knew UT would be without one or both corners, likely both since it was already confirmed Gibson would be out for an extended period of time, but then on Monday somebody closet to the program learned Gaston and Greene are still hurt. Oddsmakers aren’t supposed to have inside information, but they all have sources.
Whatever the reason, Vegas is seeing Tennesse football put up a bigger fight against Georgia than it has ever since Josh Heupel took over the program. Of course, that could motivate the Dawgs, as it did when UT came out at No. 1 in the inaugural CFP rankings in 2022, but this year could be different.
